Cutting Through Diplomacy Fog: The Two Camerons

The PM has vowed a tough renegotiation with Europe - but at G7 he was slightly self-conscious about a possible exit.

By Faisal Islam - Political Editor

The fog of diplomacy clouded the Bavarian Alps around the G7 summit.

US President Obama had to deny comments on the "strong dollar".
The G7 communique itself made some extraordinary promises. World leaders promising decarbonisaton of the global economy by the end of the century
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A promise to change things in 85 years, when the longest average life expectancy in the G7 is 83. And yet that claim was not even the source of the most incredulity at the summit.
That honour was reserved for Prime Minister David Cameron.

He spent some precious political capital blaming the travelling British media pack for collectively misinterpreting his own off-camera briefing on Sunday as a "back me or resign" message to eurosceptic ministers.

Such misinterpretations are possible of course. Mr Cameron said he only became aware of the problem when he saw the morning papers. He suggested that journalists should "ask him" next time to avoid such misunderstandings.

The less-than-clear position of the PM is that ministerial collective responsibility (ie. "back me or be sacked") applies to the renegotiation, and he is yet to decide whether it applies to the referendum.
Cutting through the alpine fog, what is clear is that there are two David Camerons to reconcile during this renegotiation.

Leaders from the Group of Seven industrial nations at a summit in Germany

Firstly there is the one that appeared at the election and in Monday morning's press conference, who sticks to the script of a tough renegotiation with European partners followed by a once-in-a-generation in-out choice for the British people.

And then there is PM Cameron who turns out at world leaders' summits like the G7, slightly self-conscious about critiques of a less-than-Great "shrinking Britain" withdrawing from the world stage.

Video:Obama Wants Britain To Stay In EU

In fact that was one of the main takeaways from this G7 Summit. The PM arguing that "Britain is back" and "we are not shrinking".

The EU referendum in such diplomatic circles is seen as a symbol of an inward-looking UK. In this context Mr Cameron sounds like a committed European.
His place at the G7 table is not dependent on EU membership, but everyone at it clearly thinks it does.

The G7 communique contained numerous references to the EU in combating Russian aggression over Ukraine. President Obama chose to mention he was "very much looking forward to" the UK staying in the EU.

It wasn't even on the agenda here... but the prime ministerial climbdown, or clarification, is a clear a sign of the sensitivities back home in his own party.

If you want a measure of his true views: consider this, at Chancellor Angela Merkel's invitation, the PM chaired the G7 trade session on connecting the US economy to the European Union - not the actions of a man planning on quitting the EU.

This initiative was launched at the G8 chaired by Mr Cameron himself. He calculates failure to sign a deal costs £700m a day. The G7 communique agreed with Mr Cameron's push to sign an outline US-EU trade deal by the end of the year.

This is going to become a big political issue over the next few months, particularly as regards the NHS. It is a wildcard, particularly in relation to the left-wing anti-EU vote.

A poll by Comres for the Daily Mail tested the actual EU Referendum Bill question to be debated in the House of Commons on Tuesday. A stonking 58% saying Yes to stay in the EU. Would Mr Cameron see that as good or bad news? Whilst the negotiation is on he has to pretend he is neutral.

The reality is that the "misinterpretation" was more reflective of what the PM actually thinks. Indeed with polling that strong for Yes, how much of a renegotiation does he actually need? And does it actually matter if Cabinet ministers with one referendum vote resign?